UK Food System Resilience 2035

Technological Landscape Brief

Pressure-testing scenarios across supply, technology & consumer behaviour

The UK imports 40% of its food. Climate shocks, geopolitical disruption, and labour shortages are no longer hypothetical, they're current realities. Five technologies could reshape how we grow, process, move, and trust our food. But technology alone doesn't create resilience. Choices do.

Reflection: What are the choices to make, and who gets to make them? What could be the unintended consequences of those choices?

The Pressure Points

🔴 Supply Vulnerabilities

  • Climate volatility & crop failures
  • Energy cost exposure
  • Labour shortages (50k+ vacancies)
  • Single-source dependencies
  • 30% food waste across chain

🟢 Consumer Signals

  • 75% want supply chain transparency
  • Trust in "natural" vs "lab-made" split
  • Price sensitivity at record highs
  • Sustainability intent vs purchase gap
  • Generational divide on novel foods

Five Technologies Reshaping the System

You probably interact with some or all of these technologies in your day to day.

AI & Predictive Systems

Mature Tech Mature Business Very High Confidence

Applications: Demand forecasting, crop yield prediction, dynamic pricing, quality control, supply chain optimisation, waste reduction algorithms.

✓ Evidence Base
  • 87% of enterprises use AI for demand forecasting with 35%+ accuracy improvements
  • Market valued at $19.8B (2025), growing at 45.3% CAGR
  • Proven ROI: Kroger (25% waste reduction), Unilever (98% on-shelf availability)
  • 15-30% better defect detection, 20-40% reduction in unplanned downtime
  • 50% of food companies planning AI investments in 2026
⚠ Reality Check
  • Adoption uneven—vendor saturation creates decision paralysis
  • Poor data quality kills implementations fast; legacy ERP systems create silos
  • SMEs face prohibitive setup costs and lack implementation expertise
  • User adoption critical—if staff distrust AI outputs, they circumvent the system
→ Could enable anticipatory food systems that respond before crises hit—or concentrate power in those who control the data.

Controlled Environment Agriculture

Mature Tech Immature Business Medium Confidence

Applications: Vertical farms, climate-proof growing, urban production, year-round supply, reduced water/land use.

✓ Evidence Base
  • Technology delivers on technical promises: yield, water efficiency, climate resilience
  • Hyper-efficient operators with patient capital and renewable energy are surviving
  • Urban production model reduces last-mile logistics and food miles
⚠ Reality Check
  • Sector in "valley of disappointment" phase—$3B+ invested since 2020 with billion-dollar bankruptcies
  • Economically false at current energy prices despite being technically true
  • Consumer willingness to pay premium insufficient to cover operating costs
→ Could decouple food from weather and geography—or remain too energy-intensive and capital-heavy to scale beyond niche.

Clean Ingredients & Precision Fermentation

Emerging Tech Immature Business Medium-High Confidence

Applications: Precision fermentation, cellular agriculture, novel proteins, functional ingredients, waste-stream valorisation.

✓ Evidence Base
  • European investment €470M in 2024 (23% YoY increase); precision fermentation €120M (3x growth)
  • 12 precision fermentation products under EFSA review (up from 3 in 2023)
  • Genuine cost reductions: Meatly achieved £1/litre culture medium
  • UK/EU regulatory sandboxes active (FSA £1.6M fund); UK £200M Biomanufacturing Fund
⚠ Reality Check
  • Critical infrastructure gap: demo/commercial facilities cost €15-250M, beyond VC capacity
  • Cultivated meat funding collapsed 59% to €48M in 2024
  • Technology works but business models unproven at commercial scale
  • Years away from meaningful market penetration for human consumption
→ Could slash land use and import dependency—or face consumer rejection and years of regulatory delay.

Advanced Manufacturing & Robotics

Mixed Maturity Developing Business Medium Confidence

Applications: Autonomous harvesting, precision weeding, automated processing, robotic picking, last-mile delivery.

✓ Evidence Base
  • Market growing robustly: $14.74B (2024) → $48.06B by 2030 (23% CAGR)
  • John Deere See & Spray: 59% herbicide reduction across 1M+ acres
  • Precision weeding/spraying shows strong adoption—proven ROI within 1-2 seasons
  • Autonomous tractors commercially available from Deere, CNH, Kubota since 2022
⚠ Reality Check
  • Harvesting is the "most technically challenging frontier" with limited commercial success
  • Expert estimate: harvest robots might replace 50% of labor at best, not all
  • High upfront costs (tens of thousands to $1M+), complex maintenance
  • 15% of 2024 companies exited by 2025—dynamic but high-failure environment
→ Could solve chronic labour shortages—or accelerate rural job displacement without just transition planning.

Digital Traceability & Blockchain

Mature Tech Emerging Business Medium-High Confidence

Applications: Provenance tracking, real-time contamination detection, rapid recall response, sustainability verification, regulatory compliance (EU Digital Product Passport 2027).

✓ Evidence Base
  • Blockchain adoption examined in 41.7% of European food supply chain studies
  • Proven at enterprise scale: Walmart, Carrefour (1,000+ products), Tesco (IBM Food Trust)
  • EU Digital Product Passport mandate for 2027 is critical driver
  • Consumers pay 23-41% premiums for blockchain-certified produce
⚠ Reality Check
  • Most implementations are pilot-stage, not production-scale
  • Substantial barriers: interoperability, scalability, high costs, regulatory uncertainty
  • Safety improvements "rarely documented"—benefits remain indirect
  • SME compliance costs for 2027 EU mandate could create export disruption
→ Could rebuild consumer trust and enable transparent value chains—or become a compliance burden that favours large players over SMEs.

UK Position: Three Facts To Consider

71%
of global food execs now use AI—up from 42% in one year
112 vs 224
UK robots per 10k workers vs EU average (we rank 24th globally)
£200M+
UK biomanufacturing fund + FSA sandbox launched

Questions To Reflect

UK Policy Landscape

Five policy priorities that could potentially shape whether UK food systems can translate technology potential into resilience reality.

1

Regulatory Clarity for Cultivated Meat

The FSA regulatory sandbox (£1.6M, October 2024) is a positive step, but the UK needs a clear, predictable pathway for human consumption approvals. Current average processing time is 2.5 years versus a 17-month statutory aim.

The gap: Regulatory uncertainty is deterring investment at a critical commercialisation stage. Four companies await human consumption approval with no clear timeline.
2

Infrastructure Finance Innovation

The £200M Biomanufacturing Growth Fund addresses a critical gap, but demo/commercial facilities (€15-250M) are beyond VC capacity.

Required: Blended finance models—combining public grants, development finance, and patient capital. Consider infrastructure bank participation for facilities meeting strategic resilience criteria.
3

Robotics Adoption Acceleration

UK significantly lags the EU average in robotics deployment (112 vs. 224 robots per 10,000 workers). The £500K UK Agri-Tech Centre grant for regulation/standards optimisation is insufficient.

Recommend: Expanded capital allowances, skills programmes, and regional demonstration farms to address adoption barriers beyond funding.
4

AI Leadership Consolidation

AI represents the UK's strongest position. NAPIC, Imperial fermentation hub, and university programmes provide competitive infrastructure.

Focus: Proprietary datasets and industry-academic partnerships to differentiate from generic AI tools. Consider data sharing frameworks to accelerate sector-wide adoption while protecting competitive advantage.
5

Digital Product Passport Preparation

Regardless of post-Brexit regulatory alignment, UK food exporters to the EU will face blockchain-level traceability requirements from 2027.

Action now: Companies should begin audit-ready supply chain preparation. Government support for SME compliance infrastructure essential to prevent export disruption.

Strategic Tensions Shaping 2035

These aren't problems to solve but polarities to navigate. Where does this ecosystem of partners and companies sit?

Speed ↔ Safety

Regulatory speed vs consumer protection

FSA takes 2.5 years per novel food approval (target: 17 months). Singapore approves in months. A safety incident sets the sector back a decade. Move too slow and capital goes elsewhere.

Global ↔ Local

Efficiency vs resilience

Global supply chains deliver cost and variety. But COVID, Ukraine, and Suez exposed fragility. Localisation improves resilience but raises costs. Who absorbs that—you or the consumer?

Transparency ↔ Competition

Consumer trust vs commercial secrecy

Consumers demand visibility. The EU's 2027 Digital Product Passport will mandate it. But traceability reveals your suppliers, margins, and sourcing strategies. What happens when everyone can see everything?

Disruption ↔ Transition

Technology speed vs workforce readiness

Automation solves labour shortages. But Small Robot Co. went bankrupt in 2024. Technology without viable business models and just transitions creates losers, not resilience. Who manages the human side?

🃏 The Wildcards: Geopolitics, Capital & Resilience

The Geopolitics of Food

  • Singapore targets 30% food self-sufficiency by 2030
  • China dominates rare earth minerals for robotics
  • EU sets traceability standards UK must follow to export
  • Netherlands captures disproportionate agri-tech investment

The Capital Mismatch

  • A commercial fermentation facility: €15-250M
  • Typical VC appetite: much less, much shorter
  • Resilience requires patient, long-term capital
  • Investability demands quarterly returns
If food becomes strategic infrastructure—like energy or semiconductors—how does that change the UK's strategic choices for allocation of resources?

Pressure-Testing Four Futures

Each scenario represents a different combination of choices on the tensions above. Your task: stress-test your organisation's strategy against all four.

A. Tech-Led Leap

Fast regulation, global scale, big capital wins. Efficiency soars but consolidation accelerates.

B. Fortress Britain

Sovereignty agenda dominates. Domestic production surges. Costs rise, choice narrows.

C. Stalled Transition

Caution prevails, investment fragments. UK becomes technology importer, not leader.

D. Distributed Networks

Regional systems flourish. Technology enables local. Standards vary but communities strengthen.

Your Scenario Challenge

The Setup: It's 2030. A climate event has disrupted European harvests for two consecutive years. Consumer confidence in food safety is shaken by a high-profile contamination incident.

Your Task: Pick one scenario. In that world: (1) What happens to your supply chain? (2) Which technology bet pays off—or fails? (3) How do consumers behave? (4) What do you wish you'd done differently in 2026?

As You Hear From Today's Discussions, Consider:

A final question: How might capital, innovation, and operations work together to build a UK food system that is both resilient AND investable,and what would you need to do differently starting tomorrow?

Chaves, P. (2026). UK Food System Resilience Towards 2035: Technological Disruptors and Ecosystem Landscape. January 2026.

© 2026 Priscila Chaves. All rights reserved.

This document and its contents are proprietary and confidential. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except for brief quotations in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, please contact the author via www.priscilachaves.com.